A tale of two nights — how Milwaukee reestablished its dominance as its first round series now moves to Miami
Huh, well that was some start to a playoff series, wasn’t it?
What was seemingly set up to be your typical one-versus-eight opening round match-up began not in the more-or-less lopsided manner we’ve grown accustomed to watching in such scenarios — but instead resulted in the best player in the world exiting due to a lower back contusion, a high-octane scorer for the opponent gone thanks to a broken hand, and ultimately the top overall seed in these playoffs losing Game 1 on its home floor.
Oh, and then that same top seed responded in Game 2 by shellacking that same opponent for the better part of 48 minutes, all of it without the services of said best player in the world.
Welcome to Bucks vs. Heat 2023.
My read on this series to date is that despite the surprising 1–1 split as things head south to Miami not all that much has really changed.
Milwaukee is the far superior team and can remain so even with Giannis Antetokounmpo out of the lineup entirely.
Why? Because so long as the Bucks play to their strengths and don’t veer off script there simply aren’t enough options on the Heat to consistently hurt/hassle them.
The next question you’re surely asking; well then why the loss in Game 1?
Let’s examine:
Game 1
If you’re a Bucks supporter, the series opener was equal parts a realization of your worst nightmare and Miami’s wildest dreams.
Giannis gets injured in the opening quarter amidst what was already a sluggish start for Milwaukee, briefly returns a while later but ultimately leaves the game for good with more than 30 minutes left to play.
Meanwhile, an out-of-body Heat team nearly posts 60/60 (FG/3pt) shooting splits — which just so happens to coincide with a putrid 11/45 (24.4 percent) effort from behind the arc by the Bucks.
And of the few Heat players who weren’t interested in being incredibly efficient from deep, two of them — Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo — were busy going a combined 25/45 from two-point range instead. Butler in particular scored way too many easy baskets — including three or four leak outs in transition in which the Bucks simply failed to account for him cherry picking behind the defense.
Add it all up and you were left with a game that I personally never felt was in the balance for Milwaukee to win, even as it pulled moderately close on a few occasions in the second half.
The Bucks were never sharp enough themselves and never made Miami uncomfortable enough after its hot start. In fact, Milwaukee almost seemed to get in its own head at times, like by switching to an (ineffective) zone defense for a brief spell seemingly as a response to Giannis’ absence and some early Jrue Holiday foul trouble.
To put the overall disjointed effort into perspective, Milwaukee got 33 points on 60 percent shooting (plus nine rebounds and four assists) in 33 minutes from Khris Middleton — a guy whose health was in question entering the postseason — and it didn’t really matter.
My reaction in the immediate aftermath was one more so of bewilderment than grave concern (other than for the health of Giannis). Even down its two-time league MVP the Bucks still possess the requisite talent/depth to exploit the Heat. They just didn’t do it in Game 1, leaving me to ponder if a similarly befuddling result might be in store for the rematch three nights later.
Turns out it most certainly was not.
Game 2
The most glaring statistic from this contest has to be Milwaukee scorching the nets from downtown to the tune of 25 makes on 49 attempts (51 percent).
Those 25 made threes tied an NBA playoff record, and both blew open a game that the Bucks already led by seven after a quarter and put it away for good in the third after Miami made a brief run to close the deficit under 20 for a moment early in the second half.
Milwaukee went a combined 18/29 (62.1 percent!) from behind the arc across that 24-minute stretch — draining nine in each stanza. Pile up a few figures like that and it’s how you wind up with a historical nugget like this one to encapsulate a resounding Game 2 victory:
Or how just like its 25 made threes tied a postseason record, so too did Milwaukee’s six different players who scored over 15 points on Wednesday night — again, all of it minus the services Antetokounmpo.
But lest the hotter-that-hot shooting display capture your attention as the deciding impact on this game, I’d like to instead turn your attention toward what quickly became apparent as Milwaukee’s focus entering Game 2:
Establish a dominant presence in the paint over the smaller Heat.
Remember those 25 made threes I just mentioned? Only a trio of them came in the opening quarter.
Those 49 three-point attempts that made up just under half of Milwaukee’s 99 total shots for the game? Only six of them (12.2 percent) took place in the first 12 minutes of action.
The Bucks hoisted up at least twice that many in each of the following three quarters.
By process of elimination that should tell you where Milwaukee did the vast majority of its damage in the early going on Wednesday night.
Close to the basket.
In fact, all you need to do is watch the opening possession to get a pretty good indicator of where the Bucks were intent on setting the tone:
Bobby Portis (hardly shy about taking an open three) completely turns down a great look after screening for Jrue Holiday and waits a solid three or four beats for Brook Lopez to position himself on the block for an entry pass. Not only did the play result in a dunk, but it was just the start of a 7/9 opening quarter for the big fella, the furthest from the hoop of those makes being a nine- or ten-foot hook shot to beat the buzzer.
The six other field goals Lopez converted were comprised of two dunks, two lob finishes, one lay-in off of an offensive rebound and a driving layup.
Lopez would finish with 25 points on the night, but it was the 14 in the first quarter and how they occurred that was most telling of his impact on Game 2.
Miami’s defensive gameplan for the Bucks has typically been to have its lone starting ‘big’ Adebayo match up with Giannis in an effort to slow his typically endless paint touches that create shots for both him and others spreading the floor around him. This leaves a far smaller defender on Lopez but can work insofar as lineups with both Giannis/Lopez on the floor typically utilize Lopez as a floor-spacer out at the three-point line.
Without Giannis available, Portis earned the start for the Bucks and subsequently drew Adebayo as his primary defender.
In this setup however, Portis is a significant three-point threat himself, allowing Lopez to return to his old Brooklyn Nets roots and operate as the interior offensive focal point.
And at a titanic 7-feet tall, and 282 pounds Miami’s smaller guards/forwards have almost no chance to deter his efforts when he catches the ball anywhere near the basket.
Even Adebayo, one of the most versatile, dynamic defenders the league has to offer, can only do so much to hinder Lopez around the rim.
Watch here as the comparatively ‘diminutive’ Adebayo (six-foot-nine, 255 pounds) finds himself caught helplessly behind Lopez as he ducks into the lane:
It’s a good entry pass from Middleton away from the defender, but even if Adebayo doesn’t gamble for the steal, he’s going to find himself caught one-on-one behind Lopez six feet from the basket praying for an unlikely miss from point-blank range.
So, even if the Heat do in fact elect to put Adebayo on Lopez in these lineup configurations going forward (as they did later on in Game 2) they may still find themselves in a bind defensively, particularly because putting Adebayo on Lopez means sticking a smaller defender on Portis.
In that instance Milwaukee can simply invert its two big men similarly to the role Lopez occupies alongside Giannis. Now Portis, a more than capable, strong interior scorer in his own right can bury his defender in the paint while Lopez spaces out to the arc.
Miami simply doesn’t have the size or front court depth to match up with the Bucks (with or without Giannis), leaving them to choose between what they perceive as the lesser of two bad options in terms of who Adebayo guards so long as Milwaukee is attacking how it should.
The same goes for the back court, where Miami’s only real defensive weapon — Jimmy Butler — can only guard one of Holiday or Middleton — and even then, it may not matter (see Holiday’s 24 point, 11 assist, five rebound performance in Game 2).
Game 3
As we peak ahead to Saturday night’s match up — with Giannis’ status still up in the air as of this moment — my eye is primarily on Milwaukee’s ability to respond to the inevitable opening flurry of punches from a team hosting its first home playoff game, and then execute its own gameplan with a similar steadfastness and ruthlessness that we saw in Game 2.
If they do that their talent and depth should ultimately prevail at the end of 48 minutes.
The Bucks don’t need to hit another 25 threes. They just need to continue to press their numerous physical advantages where they already exist, while making Miami work offensively for whatever it gets on that end of the floor.
Quiet as it’s kept, the Heat had yet another out-of-body shooting performance in Game 2, hitting 45/84 (53.6 percent) from the floor and 16/36 (44.4 percent) from three — this for the league’s 25th best offense in the regular season that was also down Tyler Herro.
(Albeit those numbers are a bit skewed by Miami catching fire during fourth quarter garbage time.)
This is an opponent due for a clunker so long as Milwaukee makes it stress.
Do that, and the Bucks will regain control of the series with a chance to take a firm stranglehold on Monday night before things shift back to Milwaukee for Game 5.
Watch for how Miami elects to deploy Adebayo on defense and watch how the Bucks’ front court responds.
Watch to see if Coach Budenholzer continues to more or less match Holiday’s minutes with Butler’s in an effort to slow Miami’s only real shot creator.
Oh, and if that Giannis guy plays definitely watch him.
I’ll see you all back here this Tuesday between Games 4 and 5 as we could be staring at a series that I believe will be on the brink of conclusion.
And in the interim, I do hope you’ll enjoy not only Bucks/Heat but the rest of what has been a wildly entertaining postseason thus far.
As always, thanks for reading.
‘Till next time.